After the decolonisation of the most of African Nations from the European powers, only four States combined their sovereignty. Syria and Egypt Amalgamated for the formation of United Arab Republic. As luck would have it, the political union between the two countries short-lived and ended peacefully within three years. Conjointly, the people of Syria and Egypt live side by side tranquilly with a social and reciprocal economic cooperation. The other two Nation States were Somaliland and Somalia that formed the Somali Republic. Awkwardly, the political union long-lived more than 30 years with sassiness, injustice and genocide. Although, people of Somaliland regained their country back after an elongated lethal war, which resulted the forfeiture of lives, property and civilian casualties.
The International Community failed to recognise Somaliland after 23 years of peace, democracy and economic development that people of Somaliland together with their subsequent governments achieved without getting wherewithal from any Foreign Entities. The story of Somaliland is unique, and this distinctive and inimitable history worth to study, as this will lead to other nations in the direction of cogitating the Independence of Somaliland. In my in-depth Research Study of Unrecognised Somaliland I have discovered a hidden circumstances, which will endanger to the Neighbouring Countries, if the right choices are not being made by the International Community.
Statement of the Problem
The unity of the two regions of British Somaliland and Italian Somalia on July the 1st in 1960 convoluted the existing Somali conglomerated problems. The unity was initiated from Somaliland, and the notion was not only the unanimity of the two regions but the formation of the Greater Somali Republic, where Djibouti, NFD and Reserve Area to be included. Reformation of the same State will result and come up with the same strategy, which based on reclaiming Djibouti, Ethiopia and Kenyan Somali living territories, possibly not militarily as it happened in 1977, but on a political faith and religious strategic war to Ethiopia and Kenya in particular. Unrecognised Somaliland, or in other words, reunification between Somalia and Somaliland has zero interest with the neighbouring countries for security, economic and political wise. Legally the neighbouring states has a strong reason to recognise Somaliland.
This includes, firstly respecting the African Charter of the Colonial Borders. Secondly, the Act of Self-Determination. Thirdly, No Act of Union has been signed, there was no any other conditional element that Somaliland demanded, and the event was just to get hold of Independence from white colonialism, while philanthropically gifting the hard earned sovereignty to other Somali expansionism of the tribal people in the South. After the realisation of injustice and the extermination of ethnic cleansing, the people of Somaliland decided to reassure their independence once again.
This resulted bombardments of civilians mostly women and children and the genocide of more than 50 thousand of innocent civilians in the areas of Hargeisa, Burao, Berbera Erigavo, Gabiley and many more. And finally, consideration of world peace, democracy and the rule of law plus the Interest based oriented conditions of Politics and Security. The potential hazard of United Somalia have been witnessed in 1977. Therefore, the interest of the people of Eastern Africa, as well as the continental and international peace and stability depends on two democratic peaceful Somali States that contribute economic and political stability, whilst encouraging the threat of one State, which violates world peace.
Lack of Recognition and the Neighbouring Countries
One of the main mistakes, which the outside world and the neighbouring countries of Ethiopia and Djibouti are not yet begin to understand is their position of Somaliland. In this matter, if the International Community once again coax the people of Somaliland to put their sovereignty in danger, which they have lost the whole kit and caboodle they used to had, and later took to rebuild in decades, this will only jeopardise the peace and the economy of the neighbouring countries. One good example is what is now happening in Kenya, where the circulation of the main economic channels retarded.
Tourism, which was the main economic industry of the country is now encumbering and hampering the local and foreign investment activities triggered by delicate security, and the lack of confidence on the friable peace. The undigested political business of the International Community, and the lack of realisation of the neighbouring countries of Somaliland to any potential hazard it might recruit the same problems of Kenya, if Ethiopia and Djibouti do not grasp and become conscious.
Somaliland and Ethiopia has long border lines, which Ethiopia benefited the most, for the reason that Somaliland enjoys peace and stability so as the neighbouring countries of Djibouti and Ethiopia. There are no rebel groups from these countries, because they vanished for the sake of Somaliland’s peace and collaboration. Certainly not an available host land to dispose attacks or insurrection of any kind.
Impact on One-Side Support Politics
The international support to the illegitimate Federal Government of Mogadishu, which the true colour shows an opposing dual clan policy in a battlefield on piracy, extremism, tribalism and corruption will lead an endless crisis in to the Horn of Africa. On the other hand, the lack of political recognition of Somaliland, which legally recognisable by the eyes of the International Law will degenerate peace and stability of the entire region. The direct beneficiaries of Recognised Somaliland will be the neighbouring countries of Ethiopia and Djibouti, even if Djibouti government is still struggling to understand the political means of peace, which empowers the economy and the wellbeing of a nation. The competition of Berbera port is less risk when it comes to peace and stability of the entire region.
Therefore my political analysis and theoretical argument towards the efforts of International Community to Somalia discloses these political phenomenon. At the outset, the political case of Somalia should be look at the eyes of the International Law, by respecting the internationally recognised borders of Africa. This will separate and solve one problem, firstly it will classify between the Inferno Somalia and the Peaceful Democratic Somaliland. And again it will solve another part of the problem, which is literally sound to differentiate peace from war. Because the root cause of the problem between Somaliland and Somalia is the International Community, simply by enforcing the weak Somalia to claim Somaliland Territorial Integrity. The government of Mogadishu controls less than half of the Capital, which Amisom made it possible and without these African troops the illegitimate government is incapable to secure its hole let along to functionalise for its premises.
Unsolicited Re-unification Consequence
If the efforts of pulling together Somaliland and Somalia continues, it will construct two opposing scenarios. Primarily, when the International Community supports the two opposing clans of the South by the name of Federal Government of Somalia, which are close companions and have the same political view when it comes to Somaliland issue. Somaliland which has powerful nation and hard resisted people will put themselves in a position that the world left the peace loving people of Somaliland no choice but to defend its territory and its Sovereignty. This will result a catastrophic everlasting war between Somaliland and Somalia. It will closely effect Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti as latter countries have a large Somali ethnic population who belongs to the different clans of Somalia and Somaliland. The piracy and the International Terrorism will become uncontainable and beyond control.
In Africa, the Gulf of Aden, the Mediterranean, Indian Ocean and the Red sea in particular will be hit the most. International Terrorism will access air, sea and land attacks continuously against where ever peace, democracy and freedom lies. Even if other possible situations deferral this problem to happen for quite some time, there are other worse possibilities, which might ruin the interests of Western Countries because of the emerging Eastern Countries economic and scientific possibilities. The world is changing its ranks, there are other competing powers such as China, India or for some reasons Russia. And off course, the interests of these nations might change the whole phenomenon. On the other hand, if the pressure of the International Community stays stagnant, and Somaliland change course into Conventional Federal System with Somalia. A united government of Somalia will struggle to secure socioeconomic matters of its people, because of unskilled and lack of human capital. This hardship and economic tough times will expedite to allow fundamentalism phenomenon based on faith and religious extremism to overtake power. A great possibility of Federal Republic which is Islamic State in context might flourish based on those current circumstance, because of the Somali people who are fundamental believers of an Islamic doctrine will demand to be established a spiritual system within the Somali territories. Every single city, town or village of Somali soil there are fundamental political Islam in place, the unity between the two regions will be based on the course of action of Islamic determination policy.
In conclusion, a phenomenon of back to square one, Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti will be threatened again, and this time, threat is much more dangerous and assimilative to motivate more radicalism in the Horn of Africa. The war will be within, because these neighbouring countries have large Somali and other Muslim Populations of their own. And there is no much need that the Islamic Federal Republic of Somalia to assault this countries but to support and provide technically. For instance, positively majority Iraq Shia who receive support from Iran or negatively the undefeated ruling Shia in Syria who negatively depressed the Western countries and their majority Sunni rebels. In conclusion it is the best interest of both the International and Neighbouring Countries to pre-empt this hazard before it turns into disaster. Somaliland recognition will contribute peace, political stability and economic security to the region. It will also promote democracy, freedom and self-liberty as well as the rules of globalisation and the international trade. Whilst unrecognised Somaliland or re-unified Somaliland with Somalia, which is United Islamic Federal Republic of Somalia is an International threat of peace in the region and globalised liberal democracy of the Western Values. And we have the good example of ISIS in Iraq and Syria where the International Community supported a sectarian exclusive government of Iraq. The world has witnessed the consequences of supporting the weak, while defeating the insuperable element of a nation.
Mohamed Hagi Mohamoud a Political Scientist and a Social Researcher, and an author of Academic Articles in East Africa. Department of Political Science. The University of Warwick. Email: firstname.lastname@example.org or M.Hagi-Mohamoud@warwick.ac.uk.