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Published On: Sat, Jul 23rd, 2016

Somaliland:NEC issues a fair ruling on the issue of Shared ownership of the UCID Political Party

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ucidThe chairman of the Ucid party appeared to have suffered a series of stinging defeats in the last 15 years, by loosing two general elections, by loosing all MP’s in the parliament but one and recently loosing the ruling by the electoral commission of Somaliland making it clear previous agreements do stand in the court of law, it’s a norm in life or in a politicians life to at times shoot them self’s in the foot but shooting yourself in both foots constantly and not waiting for the wounds to heal would most likely cripple you and that seems to be the diagnosis for Ucid chairman and now permanently registered
as a vulnerable politician,according to preliminary diagnosis.

 

Hobbled by corruption scandals, loss of reputation and trusts within the majority of the public in a scale never witnessed previously. “We’re back!” crowed the party supporters all over the nation and abroad in a statement; the party believes the rulinga firm and resounding step toward recovering the election in 2017.

The public support and the image of the party heading into 2017 will have a significant impact on the amount of resources it has and the number of votes it can muster in the presidential contest.But current ruling party is suffering from low approval ratings, intense internal issues and what some see as a lack of commitment to fight corruption.

 

It’s uncertain whether anyone ever really carried a placard that read keep your government hands off Ucid. But if so, that person (Jamal) wasn’t spouting gibberish. The Kulmiye administration and its donors had an interest in hoped to squeeze him (Jamal) out of the 2016 elections.In the ruling Party’s angry meetings, this issue resonated perhaps more loudly than any other, the ultimate example of redistribution from a deserving “us” to an undeserving “them.”Yet even as the ruling party protested gets rid of Jamal, the public in general rejected the hardening ideological orthodoxy of the ruling party donors and elected officials, a just rule being favored by masses, anticipative and delivered by the electoral role.

As a class, big donors could not see any of this, or would not. So neither did the politicians who depend upon them. Against all evidence, both groups interpreted the ucid Party as a mass movement in favor of their agenda.

One of the more dangerous pleasures of great wealth is that you never have to hear anyone tell you that you are completely wrong.The new strategy soon proved a total and utter failure. The Gang never realized, by mid-2015, a majority of self-identified kulmiye supporters disapproved of their party’s leadership, an intensity of disapproval never seen in the country.

In fact, disapproval had flared into an outright revolt of the Kulmiye base in the party’s general election, which ended badly, for the most part. The ruling party lost its most prominence ministers and co-founders. Party leaders believed the lesson had been learned and expected their voters to be more tractable in future elections.They rationalized Cantor’s defeat as a freak event, the sad consequence of a nationally minded politician’s neglect of his party.Any presidential candidate who wanted to be taken seriously had better not be in a similar place or mentioned in the same sentence to Faysal on any issue, maybe it was nota good idea for Kulmiye to ally with the Faysal.

By 2012, a majority of public favored candidates who had never been elected to anything, someone who was not a fraud someone who has real credentials, someone who will bring change and new way as the old way was stuck in the past.

What was new and astonishing was the Jamal boom. He jettisoned party on issues ranging from entitlement spending to foreign policy, trade agreements, regulating the financial sector, the business sector, stopping the monopoly on public sectors and business in general, public welfare and so on. Jamal’s surge was a decisive repudiation by millions of Somalilanders of the collective wisdom of their countries future.

He promised above all to create jobs for the young un-employed, where 70% of the country’s population is under the age of 30.

Something has changed in Somaliland politics since the ruling. The old slogans ring hollow. The new candidates are less absurd, the orthodox candidates more vulnerable. The donor elite planned a dynastic restoration in 2017. Instead, it triggered an internal political class war.

 

The contest for the presidency turns on external events as much as or more than internal party politics.

Jamal’s team believed that the last-minute revelation of the electoral role ruling, so anything could happen in the next 45 days. But that does not mean anything will happen. Barring shocks, presidential elections turn on the fundamentals of economics, demography, and ideology.

The puzzle for the leaders of the ruling Party and the Ucid party is,what now? And what next after that? None of the options facing the ruling party and Ucid party is entirely congenial. But there appear to be two paths that could be follow, for this campaign season and beyond. The lead party needs to move forward without Faysal in very different directions.

 

Ahmed Mino

Xoghaya gudd xisbiga UcidUk

London.

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