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Published On: Fri, Apr 4th, 2014

Prospects of Somaliland-Somalia Negotiations and its Impact on the State

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By Eng. Bashe Abdi Gaboobe

The history of negotiations between Somaliland and Somalia is very much a young history, with successive elected governments of Somaliland stead-fistedly refusing to partake in negotiations with Somalia, in the past. Payne (2011) believes this is because these governments were armed with the understanding that engaging with

Mogadishu implicitly accepts its authority over the affairs of the Somaliland region; thus belying Somaliland’s longstanding justification for the right of self-determination. However, this stated view is slowly being replaced by a new perspective championed by the current president of Somaliland, President Ahmed Mohamed Mohamoud Silanyo whose government has willingly participated in several internationally sponsored dialogues with their counterparts in the newly elected government of Somalia.

This should not be taken to signify a change in Somaliland’s attitude to Somalia’s claim over its sovereignty, as Dr. Omar, Somaliland’s ex foreign minister and signatory of the Seven Point Agreement in Ankara, stated in an interview, “Somaliland is not seceding from a functioning independent state, but simply decided to withdraw from a union that had absolutely failed in all respects” (Wardheernews, 2011). Rather, it illustrates the importance of a new factor that had come into play and which is the formation of legitimate government in Somalia with which the Somaliland government can broach the matter of getting the Somali government and the international community to accept the dissolution of the union that had already happened 24 years ago.

Dagne (2010, p.27) states that there have been over 14 national reconciliation conferences which have largely “failed to bring about lasting peace in Somalia”. Thus, without any power-wielding government in Somalia, let alone a legitimate government, Somaliland continued with its own state-building exercises – such as strengthening its political institutions by regularly holding elections that are highly peaceful and in accord with international standards (Bradbury, 2008) – while biding its time until Somalia stabilizes and elects a democratic government that can openly represent the interests of its people, and confer acceptance over Somaliland’s right to self-determination.

The newly elected government is headed by President Hassan Sh Mohamoud who took over from the Transitional Federal Government that was provided with the authority to govern Somalia on the behalf of the Somali people since 2004 (Sage, 2005). As the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (2013) notes, “the new president is committed to improving security and justice in Somalia, including the protection of human rights. This greater political commitment is encouraging, but the government faces many of the same capacity problems as its predecessors.”

Somaliland has engaged with this new government in Somalia by participating in the London Conference on Somalia, despite concerns of the ‘capacity problems’ that plagues the new government, in the hopes of demonstrating its commitment to safe-guarding any possible future where Somalia becomes a stable country and Somaliland is awarded the recognition it highly seeks.

Conclusion

It took the amalgamation of recent historic phenomena – the formation of a legitimate government in Somalia, a stronger assuredness of its stature as a sovereign nation in Somaliland and renewed efforts from countries such as Turkey, UAE and Britain to intercede directly between the two countries – to bring about direct talks between the two countries. Nevertheless, the talks entered into were only held with the precondition that the issues to be discussed were to be solely centered upon mutually agreeable issues. These talks have been heralded by the international community as being ‘a move in the right direction’, even though the outcomes from those negotiations, as will be argued by this author, demonstrates core divisiveness between Somaliland and Somalia that will be hard to overcome in any future negotiations.

The success of any negotiations between two entities is highly dependent on the willingness of both parties and more significantly, the intermediary to compromise on the core tenets which divide the two parties. The central positions that divide Somaliland and Somalia – sovereignty vs unity – is so divisive that it renders any negotiations entered into by Somaliland and Somalia highly untenable. Furthermore, the indecisiveness of the international community – as evidenced by the recent conferences hosted by Istanbul and London – to justify the Somalia position of national unity, while relying upon it as their default option when dealing with both Somaliland and Somalia has led to an erosion of the credibility of such countries such as Britain to intermediate fairly in the eyes of Somaliland. This diminishes the prospects for Somaliland to successfully steer future negotiations. Thus, the expected impact will result in a ratcheting of tension between the two countries, increased instigation from Somalia as already seen in the conflict over control of Somaliland’s airspace – and eventually result in the destabilization of the two countries.

Editor’s Note

This article was delivered by the author in a debate launched by the University of Hargeysa about Somaliland and Somalia negotiations in August 2013.

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  1. dheeg says:

    Mr Gaboobe raises some interesting points. I think talking to Somalia at some point was inevitable and Silanyo/Saylici team have shown great deal of courage in taking part in these talks. What I fail to understand is why did they not insist on AU arbitration or indeed, even a UN one although we all know its hostility to our cause?

    By accepting Turkish mediation we accepted the worst possible option. Turkey is not only ignorant of the history behind this conflict, it is has its own sensitivities about 'secession'. It is on the side of somalil and makes no bones about it.

    I think Silanyo/Saylici accepted direct talks and then Turkish mediation too readily. History will judge teh size of the mistake and its impact.

  2. @Buuxiye says:

    Two States in dialogue to AGREE their future relationship?

    – It matters not what Turkey knows or believes.
    – It matters not if the Two states never reach an agreement.

    The fact of the matter is TWO STATES must agree on something for them to have an form of relationship. This is the greatest victory since 1991 for Somaliland-Republic. Without any agreement Somalia-Italia's mafia cannot claim authority ever again.

    Stop winning like a lonely old widow, Majeerteen have totally failed politically and this will be realized 2016. Hawiye have awoken from their deep sleep. In a one man one vote system MJ & MR will divide their votes in Somalia-Italia and even if they were to unite their numbers the Hawiye out number then 2-1.

    Now the question is will Somalia-Italia-federation and their road-map signatories accept a Hawiye Win in 2016???

    Will Hawiye ever repeat their Abdullahi Yusuf affair by SELECTING an MJ in 2016?

    Will MR allow MJ to have the top seat?

    2016 is when all hell breaks loose in Muuqdisho, i wouldn't be surprised in Abdi Wally declares full independence from Muuqdisho in 2016.

    What UNITY? Habar gidir will not accept another Abgaal in power 2016…

    Unity??? Show me Unity in Somalia-Italia-federation!

    Who cares if these useless dialogues ever produce any fruit… All i care about is that Somaliland-Republic will remain on course for recognition no matter what happens… There is no going back… they cannot bring back the dead… they cannot heal the wounds… they cannot suffer enough to ever understand their crimes…

  3. Samater says:

    So Siilaanyo is a liar. The whole negotiations are based on MUTUALLY AGRREABLE ISSUES. The so-called negotiations are no longer about formalizing Somaliland's secession from the failed union.

    • asia says:

      Hold your horses!! Just to remind you incase you have forgotten Silanyoo is an SNM Hero do you know what dose that mean???? He was ready to die for the sake of this country and your comment is very inappropriate because a legend like him should be respected and it’s unacceptable to label him as a LIAR. May Allah protect our president

  4. asia says:

    @Buuxiye
    Walal stop predicting bad things, your comment is very disturbing. I would like to see Somalis reaching an agreement where Somaliland gains its independence and Somalia solves its security problems. I pray to Allah there will be no more blood-shed in Somalia as they have suffered enough from fighting each other. Muqdishu became a graveyard now and that’s so sad. I am tired of seeing Universal TV showing a stomach Turing clips ad images. Whoever reads your comment will definitely say that you hate your brothers and sisters of Somalia so please read what you share with the public before commenting. Because you are a Somali Lander you should always think about how to represent your country in the way that it deserves to be represented.
    An advice from a sister

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